Hold ‘Em Mistakes: Missed Bets

Written by billywest on June 23, 2009

I’m not happy with how I played the river on this one, so I’ve made this kind of note-to-self post.



Full Tilt Limit Hold’em (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero(billywest) is MP2 with J K
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, MP1 calls
I raised pre-flop because MP1 was calling with everything (I had position on him) and I expected a lot of worse hands than mine to call. Also, there hadn’t been much 3-betting pre-flop up to that point.



Flop: (7.4 SB) 10 7 Q (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, MP1 calls
A lot of action on the flop, right? I had pot odds to call my open-ended straight draw after MP1 bet, plus the implied odds were looking pretty good when I decided to continue after the 3-bet. Why did I cap it? To disguise my hand. Some might call it spew, but…



Turn: (9.7 BB) 9 (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls
I’ve got the nuts at this point and am lucky to get CO to aggressively spew here while MP1 passively spews.



River: (21.7 BB) J (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks
So the Jack makes an Ace-high straight possible. I didn’t think CO was drawing to it. His wild aggression on the flop led me to think he was holding 1-pair, two-pair, or a set. At worst, he had the nut-flush draw. MP1 had played more passively on the flop, so it was more likely that he was drawing to a flush or to a straight (gutshot). When MP1 checked, it looked like he knew he had a beaten hand or he had missed a draw. But, I thought, Shit! Did he just make a better straight than mine and is now going to check-raise me since I played the turn so aggressively? I mean, if he put me on the King-high straight, he’d try to do such a thing, wouldn’t he? This is total Monsters-Under-the-Bed nonsense on my part.



Result:
COshows [A Q] a pair of Queens



MP1 shows [8 5] a straight, Queen high



billywestjp shows [J K] a straight, King high



billywestjp wins the pot (21.7 BB) with a straight, King high

So, I was right about CO; he had top pair with a backdoor flush draw on the flop. His flush possibility disappeared on the turn and with the possible straight on the turn (Indeed, I had the nut straight), his aggression on the turn was really just spew (Maybe he read my flop cap as me having a flush draw and not a straight draw). Now, look at MP1: he 3-bet the flop with a mild flush draw but picked up a gutshot straight draw on the turn and made it on the river. It’s clear to me that if I had bet on the river, CO would have likely called and MP1 might have given me some action.



If both only just called, I would have gotten 2 extra BB with my river bet. If MP1 raised me, I would’ve only just called, but if CO called the reraise as well, I could’ve had 4 extra BB for the hand.



Note To Self: There are no such things as monsters under the bed. Well, not this time, anyway.

Stay Put or Pack It In

Written by billywest on June 7, 2009

A friend of mine, who has lived here in Tokyo for a few years and has loved almost every day of it, has decided to pack it in and head back home. I don’t know the details surrounding the reason for his impending departure, but it’s got me thinking about my own future here in the land of the rising sun.



Why am I thinking about a possible departure myself? Well, there are two main reasons:

• I’ve had enough of my job and am not sure if I’d be interested in working one of the few other jobs in Japan for which I’m qualified. And,
• My long-term poker winrate is so high that it seems like a waste to not play poker full time, where I could likely double my current income.

To be honest, I’m not looking to get out of Japan, or even just Tokyo, for that matter. I’d like to stay. But, unfortunately, I don’t think I’ll be able to save enough money at my current income level to set up my own business here in Japan in the next few years, which is ultimately what I’d like to do.



It seems at this point that my best bet would be to relocate to Vegas for the time being, play poker full time while enjoying the freedom of not being tied down to a company job, and save as much as I can doing it to get a business going in the next couple of years. While having a lot less stress in my life is one benefit of not slaving away at a regular job, I’ll also have more time to think creatively about my plans for the future.



Well, no matter what, I have a strong feeling that this year needs to be a year of unprecedented change for me. A positive change, of course, but one that’s going to take an extraordinary effort on my part. When the dust settles at the end of summer, I should be on a course that will bring me closer to my destiny.

The Most Recent 10000 Hands

Written by billywest on May 18, 2009

I started off going 4000 hands at around 7.5 BB/100 only to level off at 6000 hands at 4.1 BB/100. Granted, I had a couple of meltdowns and played some pretty stupid poker through a couple of sessions. But overall, I’m pleased with this winrate.



Actually the 4.1 BB/100 winrate is averaged from the winrates I’ve achieved playing Hold ‘Em at various limits. At the lower limits, the winrate is higher and at the higher limits, it’s lower.



I’ve been playing a lot lately, mostly because I’ve been staying home most of the time on weekends in order to reach my savings goal for the summer. And, since I’m at home so often and am worried about money, playing a lot of poker has been a great way to add more dollars to my name. And, since I’ve had just about enough of my job and am ready to leave it, playing a ton of cards will be good for me since I’m likely to play poker full time after this job is history.